When Ukrainian refugees will start returning: the National Bank's response

This is stated in the July Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine. The gradual return of Ukrainians will start, according to the NBU forecasts, only from 2027.

According to the NBU, in the first half of 2025, the number of Ukrainians abroad increased by 60 thousand. This is much less than in the same period of 2024, when more than 200 thousand people left. Nevertheless, shelling by the Russian Federation and the high level of danger in certain regions continue to stimulate migration.

According to UN data, as of 1 July 2025, about 5.6 million Ukrainian citizens were outside the country.

Status in the EU keeps Ukrainians from returning

One of the reasons why Ukrainians are in no hurry to return home is the extension of temporary protection in the European Union - this regime has been extended until March 2027. After that, each EU member state will have to determine how to deal with Ukrainian refugees: extend the status, offer a new type of legal stay or encourage return home.

The NBU points out that the key factors influencing these decisions will be the migrants' level of integration, employment, payment of taxes and children's education. So far, the extension of protection has slowed the return of Ukrainians.

Forecast: outflow until 2026, return - from 2027

According to the current forecast of the NBU, in 2025 and 2026 Ukraine will leave 200 thousand people annually. At the same time, the April forecast was more optimistic - then 200 thousand people were expected to return from 2026.

Now the regulator expects the start of "net" return only in 2027, and we are talking about about about 100 thousand people. Previously, 500,000 returns were expected.

The United Nations has changed its approach to counting Ukrainian refugees twice in the last two years. Since June 2023, the UN takes into account not just the facts of crossing the border, but the presence of temporary status. And in May 2025, 1.2 million people in Russia without current refugee status were excluded from the count. Now only 7 thousand Ukrainians with temporary protection are officially registered in the Russian Federation.

Ukrainians lose their residency and stay abroad

Some migrants have adapted to life abroad, losing the status of tax resident of Ukraine. This reduces the likelihood of mass return in the near future. In addition, the NBU warns that a possible escalation of hostilities, shelling of rear regions or occupation of new territories may intensify the migration outflow.