ISW explains why the Russian army will not succeed in its offensive

The Russian army has lost approximately 50% of its T-72B and T-72B3M tanks and more T-80 tanks during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in a summary.

ISW experts also cite British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's claim that two-thirds of the Russian army's tanks have been destroyed or are unusable:

ISW cannot independently confirm Wallace's estimates, but his observation that Russia lacks a combat mechanised force to break through is consistent with our previous assessments that the conventional Russian armed forces must undergo significant reconstruction before regaining the ability to wage effective manoeuvre warfare.

ISW analysts note that Ukraine has a good prospect of launching a counteroffensive, but everything depends on the speed of equipment deliveries from partners:

Ukraine has the capacity to launch a large-scale counter-offensive within the next few months, but its ability to do so probably depends largely on the speed and scale with which the West supplies it with the equipment it needs, especially tanks and armoured vehicles.

As proof that Russia is aware of the impact of the sanctions and the domestic problem on the military-industrial complex, ISW cites Russian Security Council President Dmitry Medvedev on 9 February, who called for increased production of weapons and modern tanks.