Germany says when to expect another Russian offensive in Ukraine

The German Defence Ministry has said that a repeat Russian offensive in Ukraine is inevitable and, according to German experts, it is possible in April 2023, a new document of the German government has said, the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Focus and Kreiszeitung publications have said.

According to the experts, a Russian offensive is possible in the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas. At the same time, Russia expects the Belarusian Armed Forces to join its troops, which the Russians envisage as a distraction during a real Russian offensive. The article says that if the Belarusian military appears on the joint border with Ukraine, "Ukrainian defenders will have to split in order to repel a possible invasion from the north".

As to whether Minsk will officially join the war, German experts point out that it can only imitate an offensive if Russia decides to take full control of Donbass. But they suggest that if Putin does intend to conquer all of Ukraine, "the Belarusian army could prove a decisive force in the war." In that case, Belarusian troops could go to Kiev and Russians to Donbass. Also in implementing a massive land grab, Russia "could bombard the western part of Ukraine."

The Kreiszeitung article says: "If Putin's army succeeds in advancing into western Ukraine, it could cut off western supplies and force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. However, this strategy would require general mobilisation in Russia, as the Russian army is already significantly weakened by the war in Ukraine and requires more soldiers.

the Focus article points out that in such a case, the Russians would seek to "reach the Polish border to prevent arms supplies from the West and at the same time occupy Transnistria, a breakaway region from Moldova. At the same time, the German Defence Ministry points out that this is an unlikely development