Kiev and West lean towards freezing war without recognised borders - Financial Times

There is growing speculation in Europe that the most likely scenario for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war will be a freezing of the conflict with an indefinite postponement of the resolution of territorial issues. Alec Russell, head of international news at the Financial Times, writes about this in his author's article.

In his view, there is growing hope in Brussels that a ceasefire can at least be achieved next year, even if a full settlement of the conflict does not happen. The Europeans attribute a special role in this process to the possible mediation of Donald Trump, despite some misgivings about his actions.

Russell notes that although some politicians continue to insist on a return to the 1991 borders, there is a growing realisation in Kiev, Washington and European capitals that the most realistic outcome is a frozen conflict. At the same time, the issue of borders may be postponed indefinitely.

Possible scenarios

Among the options being discussed is a scenario reminiscent of the "Korean format," but without American troops guarding the demilitarised zone. Because of Russia's veto in the UN Security Council, the deployment of peacekeepers under the auspices of that organisation seems unlikely. Instead, Russell suggests, European forces stationed along the line of demarcation could act as peacekeepers.

European governments are aware of the risk that, in the absence of real deterrent mechanisms, Russia could resume aggression. Nevertheless, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. While there is a risk that Trump could induce Ukraine to make concessions in favour of the Kremlin, as one European official noted, this "should not be a capitulation by Ukraine".

Assurances and next steps

Among the ideas being discussed in Trump's entourage is providing Ukraine with security guarantees. These would likely not include promises of NATO membership, but could include commitments from the US and Europe to "return to the fight" if Russia violates the new agreement, as it did with the Minsk accords.

The journalist believes that the proposed scenario, despite its difficulties, could be the basis for reducing the intensity of the conflict, although the risk of its resumption remains high.