ISW does not rule out that Prigozhin may attack Ukraine from Belarus

Some of the Wagner PMC fighters may go to Belarus together with Prigozhin, the ISW believes. There they can continue what they used to do - to train to kill and make plans to attack Ukraine.

Analysts recalled that Prigozhin went to Lukashenko as part of an agreement with Putin, when the latter said he would "forgive" Prigozhin's revolt, but he would get away to neighboring Belarus.

"The agreement brokered by Lukashenko is likely to eliminate the Wagner PMC in its current form, as it deprives Prigozhin of control over it in exchange for the removal of criminal charges," write the analysts of the American Institute for War Studies.

At the same time, they note, the fate of the Wagnerians who took part in the insurgency remains unclear.

The fact that Lukashenko was instrumental in stopping the offensive against Moscow is humiliating for Putin and may have provided Lukashenko with some political advantages," the Institute for the Study of War said.

That Prigozhin's presence on the territory of Belarus could be dangerous for Ukraine was stated by British General Lord Richard Dannat on Sky News.

The head of the Wagner PMC may lead an attack on Kiev from the territory of Belarus," he said.

Richard Dannat said that the very fact of movement of "Putin's cook" to Belarus causes serious concern. According to him, if he "retained combat-ready forces around him, he again poses a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kiev," where the war has started.