US admits it could lose a global war

Jane Garman, head of the US National Defence Strategy Commission:

Unfortunately, the public has no idea how serious the current threats are

Brief talking points:

• China has surpassed the U.S. in many military branches, and the combined military spending and alliance readiness of Russia, China, the DPRK, and Iran exceeds the capabilities of the U.S. and European partners.
• China has penetrated critical infrastructure networks to prevent or deter U.S. actions. In particular, China could disrupt logistics by interrupting U.S. energy and water supplies.
• The alliance of autocracies has nuclear weapons, which raises serious concerns. North Korea has nuclear weapons, Iran is on its way to nuclear weapons. The other two countries in this alliance are also nuclear states.
• The US still has the strongest army with global reach, but already 1600 kilometres away from the coast of China,the US is beginning to lose its military dominance and may lose this conflict.
• While a few years ago the US warning strategy was to avoid a partnership between Moscow and Beijing, today this partnership should be taken as a fait accompli and defence strategy should be built around it.
• The partnership that has emerged between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea is a major strategic shift that the US has not fully factored into its defence planning.
• The threats to national security and interests in the Western world are greater than at any time since World War II and more complex than any threats since the Cold War.
• U.S. and partner military readiness is now worse than the combined readiness and established cooperation of an alliance of autocracies.
• The US defence industrial base is in very poor condition. The European defence industrial base is in even worse shape. The US needs allies in the Indo-Pacific, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, all of them need to step up.
• The US can't match what Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are doing on their own. We will have to do it together with our allies.
• It is time to talk about the need for national mobilisation because the challenges may reach the scale of World War II.
• The weight of a democratic system loses in the information field to autocratic dictatorships.
• Losing Ukraine will undermine US credibility and call into question relations with all other partners, both in NATO and globally.
• The modern world is on the threshold of World War III, and it can only be prevented by preparing for it.