The population of Ukraine due to the war may be reduced by a third

This is stated in a study funded by the EU Council .

The effect will be especially noticeable for children and the population of productive age.

Thus, the war resulted in an unknown number of military and civilian deaths. This number varies from source to source.

Also, excess mortality is possible due to limited medical care.

Migration also contributes to the decrease in the population. The International Organization for Migration estimates that more than 7.1 million people (16% of the country's population) have become internally displaced.

While 4.5 million people have returned home, some may leave again. Calculations of movement between areas, performed on Facebook penetration data, demographic data and geolocation methods, showed that on May 15, 2022, 6,842,151 people moved from the area of ​​their permanent residence.

Another 6.6 million, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees, became refugees in other countries. During this time, 2.1 million Ukrainians entered Ukraine. This can be considered a rough estimate of how many Ukrainians returned to their native country when the situation in certain regions improved.

It is impossible to estimate how many refugees will return. This will depend on many factors, including the duration of the war, its intensity in the places where the refugees live, and the situation in the country after the end of the war. The likelihood that Ukrainians will return or be able to return to their homes will be low in Russian-occupied regions such as Donbas, the article says.

There will also be a decrease in the birth rate due to the effects of the war and due to fewer women of reproductive age. In general, a change in the structure of the population is expected - the proportion of older people will be higher.

The more positive demographic outlook needed for the country's economic and recovery needs to be based on policies that help at least restore birth rates. The basis of such policies is the support of gender equality and families, significant investments in healthcare and reduction of mortality, improvement of human capital. In addition, an active immigration policy is needed, which will return Ukrainians and attract workers from other countries, experts say.