Russia has seized more Ukrainian land since August than in the first 7 months of 2024

Russian forces have accelerated their offensive in eastern Ukraine, capturing more than 200 square kilometres of territory in the last week of October, the largest advance in 2024, according to Bloomberg and analyst sources. Since August 6, the total area of territory seized has been about 1,146 square kilometres, a quarter more than in the first seven months of this year.

These developments are increasing pressure on Ukraine's Western allies to step up military support for Kiev. However, the current political situation, including the upcoming US elections, may affect further support for Ukraine. According to the Razumkov Centre, 2/3 of Ukrainians support the idea of peace talks with the Russian Federation, up 14% year-on-year, which is likely due to conflict fatigue and the difficult situation on the frontline.

The outcome of the US election is also seen as a key factor for Ukraine's future strategy: a possible victory of Donald Trump could affect the amount and duration of US aid to Ukraine, which is also being discussed in the EU.

These data point to the need to strengthen Ukraine's defence strategy, especially against key logistical hubs such as Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, which could become Russia's next targets in the Donetsk region.