From memes to victory: results of a study on the role of social media in modern elections

Millennials and Generation Z voters will make up the majority of the U.S. electorate by 2028, and the younger alpha generation will also enter voting age. These groups spend an average of more than six hours a day on media content, and social platforms like TikTok and Instagram will play an increasingly prominent role in political struggles, The Conversation reports.

Viral spread is unpredictable: algorithms work differently and their mechanisms are opaque, making it difficult to measure real influence.

The author of the paper, who investigated the "Kamala IS brat" phenomenon in the run-up to the 2024 election, traced how memes and jokes moved between X, TikTok and Instagram.

The meme "Kamala IS brat" emerged in July 2024 when British singer Charli XCX commented on social network X (Twitter) about Kamala Harris' nomination for the US presidency with the lower-case phrase: "kamala IS brat".

It refers to Charli XCX's album Brat, which became a cultural phenomenon in the summer of 2024. In the context of the album, "brat" is a certain style and lifestyle inspired by the atmosphere of the noughties and rave culture: a bit chaotic, brash, party-loving, capable of self-irony, confident but not hiding vulnerability. The visual symbol of "brat" was a neon-lime palette - bright, eye-catching and a little defiant.

When Charli called Harris "brat," it could be interpreted as a cultural compliment, equating her to style icons from the singer's music videos - Julia Fox, Chloë Sevigny, Hari Nef and Emma Chamberlain. Harris' HQ quickly picked up on the meme, changing the signature colour to "brat green" and adding Charli's tracks to TikTok videos.

The "Kamala IS brat" meme thus became a combination of a musical trend, a visual code (neon lime) and political symbolism used to attract a young electorate particularly active on TikTok and Instagram.

On X, content was disseminated through a combination of targeted communications and active audience participation, on TikTok through adaptations with audio brands and visuals, and on Instagram it was retained longer through 'explanatory' posts and media materials. The use of audio - from audio quotes to overlaying dance trends with political stories - was particularly effective.

The study found that viral content can have a "long tail" - appearing and reviving days or weeks later, offering new opportunities to reach audiences. But this effect can be both positive and negative: opponents often reinterpret a meme in their favour, which still increases its recognition.

A successful social media strategy requires not only planning, but also the ability to work together with the audience, not just for them. Examples include Canadian candidate Mark Carney, who used the hashtag #elbowsupCanada in his campaign, or New York politician Zohran Mamdani, whose multi-lingual visual content helped him win the mayoral primary.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris's 2024 campaign, despite an innovative "digital-first" approach and a team of young professionals, failed to convert online success into votes due to insufficiently clear messaging.

In Ukraine, social media has played an increasingly prominent role in political campaigns for years, from national elections to local ones.

Vladimir Zelensky's presidential campaign (2019) was the most prominent example of utilising the power of social media:

• Social media as the main channel of campaigning. Zelensky came into politics with an already formed audience from the project "Kvartal 95" and the TV series "Servant of the People". His team actively used Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, practically abandoning traditional rallies.

• Focus on video formats. Short clips and live broadcasts gave a sense of "live dialogue" and helped build an image of the candidate close to the voter.

• Theresult: the digital strategy attracted young people and previously apolitical citizens, ensuring a strong first round and a clear victory in the second round.

In the local elections (2020), many candidates "went TikTok", although not always successfully - due to miscalculations with the target audience.

• TikTok candidates. Local elections in some regions have seen the emergence of young candidates using TikTok for short campaign videos with humour, trending sounds and memes.

• Example: individual candidates in Odessa and Kharkiv used viral Challenges to draw attention to their programme.

• Impact: although the TikTok audience did not always match the electorate in terms of age, the campaign had a media effect and mentions in traditional media.

Instagram and Facebook activism during the full-scale invasion (from 2022) reached a new level.

• Military and volunteers in politics. Opinion leaders who have been active on social media since the beginning of the full-scale invasion have become politically influential figures.

• Visual mobilisation. Posts, storis and streamers from the frontline or from humanitarian missions build trust and are then used to promote initiatives - including political ones.

The conclusion of the study is clear: social media does not guarantee victory, but it can significantly influence the outcome of elections, especially among young voters who are increasingly using it for news and political engagement.