ISW assesses the likelihood of a second Russian offensive from the north and Belarus joining the war

The risk of a second Russian invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is quite low, but probable. Minsk's direct involvement in the war is almost impossible, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say.

They also noted that Ukraine was preparing for a possible such scenario and pointed out that the commander of the United Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Naev, said that the current ratio of Ukrainian forces operating in the north was sufficient to stabilize the border.

Nayev said that Ukraine's reserves might be redeployed in response to an increased threat from Belarus

Furthermore, experts point out that the Ukrainian General Staff once again informed that as of 14 January, it had not observed the formation of a strike force group of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus.

We would like to add that the Belarusian Defence Ministry has once again extended joint exercises with the Russian army, which will continue until at least 16 January.