Ukraine seized the initiative in the war

The American Institute for the Study of War reports this in a report for August 4.

Ukraine's preparations for the counter-offensive in Kherson and the initial operations of this counter-offensive, combined with the sharp weakening of Russian forces in general, seem to allow Ukraine to begin to actively shape the course of the war for the first time, the authors of the latest review emphasize.

ISW report that most likely, at this stage, Russia has abandoned the capture of Slavyansk and Seversk. There is an active transfer of troops in the direction of Kherson and Zaporozhye. The transfer of troops is also accompanied by the transfer of military equipment.

All these actions of the Russian army are connected with the fear of a counteroffensive in the Kherson region.

The ISW believes that the further course of the war will depend on whether the Ukrainian army will be able to conduct a counteroffensive in several directions at once.

They will likely either have to give up their positions west of Izyum in favor of defending their land lines of communication to the north and east, or commit more personnel and equipment to try to hold the current front line. However, such forces would need to be transferred from another direction, which would jeopardize other Russian gains, experts at the Institute for the Study of War explain.