ISW predicted possible variants of Russia's "revenge" for Kursk region

Ukraine's territorial successes in the offensive in Kursk Region pose a threat to the current regime in Russia, which positions itself as stable, controlling the internal security situation in Russia and effectively managing the war in Ukraine. This is according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for 8 August 2024.

According to analysts, Moscow will throw all its forces to retake Russian territories occupied by the Ukrainian army and restore its importance in the eyes of Russians.

Ukraine's significant advance deep into Russia has become a strategic blow to Vladimir Putin's longstanding efforts to consolidate Russia's legacy of stability, security and geopolitical revival," the paper said.

Experts point out that Putin is forced to react to the situation, and his entourage is already developing a number of scenarios to overcome the political crisis. In particular:

• the Russian military command may throw available conscripts, border guards of the Federal Security Service, Rosgvardia and other irregular forces already deployed near the international border to defend against the Ukrainian army actively moving inland;
• the Russian military command may transfer the Northern Group of Forces, which is engaged in an offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, to Russia's Kursk Oblast;
• the Russian military command may decide to transfer operational reserves accumulated for the planned offensive in the summer of 2024;
• russian military commanders may attempt to maintain forces currently in Kursk Oblast, but may redeploy significant numbers of aviation and strike units there;
• russian forces could also deploy ground strike forces and assets in and near the Kursk region.

Analysts note that the Kremlin will likely be reluctant to withdraw its troops from areas where Moscow believes the offensive is succeeding.

They stressed that the Russian forces were generally unable to use longer-range strike forces and means to create conditions for the ground manoeuvre needed to quickly retake the territory in Kursk Region and admitted that the return of the territories occupied by the Ukrainian defence forces would require significant efforts and material expenditures from the Russian Federation.

Recall, the Ukrainian military is conducting a breakthrough in the Kursk region, using a new tactic of combat operations. To move forward, they use small armoured groups that disperse across the Russian territory in several directions at the same time. At the same time, they sometimes bypass Russian fortifications and simply move on.

According to open source reports, Ukrainian forces control Russian population centres:

• Kromskie Byki;
• Molutino;
• Suja;
• Russkoye Porechye;
• Anastasievka;
• Goncharovka;
• Zaoleshenka;
• Novoivanovka;
• Bogdanovka;
• Malaya Loknya;
• Cherkasskoye Porechye;
• Kruglenkoe;
• Martynovka;
• Bolshoye Soldatskoye;
• Mirnoe;
• Korenevo;
• Snagosta;
• Olgovka.

The report of the AFU General Staff as of the morning of 10 August does not mention a breakthrough into Kursk region.