Experts say how much Ukraine stands to lose if Ukrainian refugees do not come back

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12:30, 09.07.2023

Ukraine could lose up to $113 billion in GDP over 10 years.



Also, Ukraine may lose about 45bn dollars of tax revenues. This is stated in a study by the Centre for Economic Renewal and EasyBusiness, TSN reports.

Analysts believe that the return of migrants would contribute to achieving rapid and sustainable economic growth.

In order to grow at the rate of 7% a year, by 2032 Ukraine will need to attract 3.1 to 4.5 million people to the labour force (even assuming that the majority of migrants plan to return," the Centre for Economic Recovery said.

Over time, migrants are less likely to return because of the process of their integration in the countries that receive them.

According to estimates, about 1.42 million Ukrainian forced migrants in European countries, as well as 0.7 million in the aggressor countries belong to the labour force (about 2.1 million people in total). The majority of adult migrants are women aged 25-49, the lion's share of whom have higher education and worked before the invasion," the study said.

Still, experts predict that a significant proportion of migrants will return once the war is over.

People from the war zone are most willing to return from abroad to safer regions with assistance with housing, employment and financial support," the material noted.

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Oleg Kotov

Oleg Kotov writes about the war in Ukraine and how it is changing the world.

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