The loss of the middle class: what a new study on Ukrainian refugees showed

About 5.6 million Ukrainian citizens are currently outside Ukraine. These are people who left after the start of the war and remain in different countries of the world, mainly (about 4 million) in the EU.

As Socportal reports, the ways of possible return were discussed during the presentation of the Centre's research with the participation of the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, and the head of the Ukrainian mission of the World Congress of Ukrainians, Andriy Shevchenko.

Who exactly left Ukraine

The survey data show an important trend: a significant part of those who left the country belong to the economically active population. According to the survey results:

• 71% of refugees have higher education
• 71% worked in Ukraine before leaving
• 43% could afford expensive purchases

For comparison, according to sociologists, before the war, there were about 20% of such households in Ukraine.

This means that there is a significant part of the Ukrainian middle class among those who left.

Today, about 1.7 million Ukrainians in Western countries are already working. Due to the loss of labour and consumption, economic losses for Ukraine could range from 2% to almost 10% of GDP per year, depending on the scenario.

How Ukrainians integrate in Europe

In the few years since the war started, many Ukrainians have already been able to integrate in new countries. The employment rate among refugees is around 60 per cent. However, the researchers draw attention to another problem: 54% are not working in the speciality they had in Ukraine. This creates a risk of gradual loss of professional qualifications.

An important factor of integration is knowledge of the language of the host country. The faster a person masters the language, the easier it is for him/her to find a job and the higher the chances of avoiding a decline in professional level.

Do Ukrainians plan to return

Despite integration, a significant proportion of Ukrainians are still considering returning. According to the survey:

• 43% of refugees say they plan to return;
• 36% do not plan to return.

However, most of those who talk about return do not tie it to a specific date. 80% are potentially ready to return only after the war is over and civilian flights over Ukraine resume. Many people also consider return very specifically: a significant proportion are ready to return only to their region, Kyiv or big cities. Older people are also more inclined to return.

At the same time, the majority of Ukrainian refugees who do not plan to return to Ukraine after the end of the war are people who went abroad with their full family or have seriously ill relatives. Now the majority of Ukrainian refugees are adult women, 40 per cent of them. 29 per cent are adult men, and another third are children under 18.

In general, researchers have three scenarios for the return of Ukrainians to their homes after the end of the war.

• In the middle scenario, 1.6 million refugees will return. 2.7 million will stay abroad (excluding Russia and Belarus).
• In the pessimistic scenario, 1.3 million Ukrainians will return, and 3.0 million will stay abroad.
• In the optimistic scenario, 2.2 million Ukrainians will return, and 2.1 million refugees will remain.

Why can teenagers influence the decisions of families?

Andriy Shevchenko, a representative of the World Congress of Ukrainians, draws attention to another important factor - the position of children and teenagers. According to him, it is the desire or unwillingness of a teenager that can become decisive for the decision of the whole family.

For example, if a 15-year-old child keeps in touch with classmates in Ukraine, it can significantly increase the chances of the family's return. Therefore, one of the key tasks may be to keep Ukrainian children abroad connected with the education system in Ukraine.

Whether special privileges for returns are required

Some experts simultaneously warn against creating special privileges only for those Ukrainians who will return from abroad. According to Ella Libanovae, excessive privileges for one group may cause social tension. For example, internally displaced persons - this may negatively affect social cohesion.

What might change in 2027

Another factor that could influence people's decisions is the future of temporary protection for Ukrainians in the European Union. March 2027 is increasingly being mentioned as a tentative date for the end of this arrangement. Right now:

• around 20 per cent of Ukrainian refugees have already moved on to other residence permits;
• 80% remain in temporary protection.

If EU countries do not create clear rules for transition to other statuses, some people may face a difficult choice: to return to Ukraine, to look for another country or even to risk an illegal stay.

What Ukraine can do

Researchers note that the return policy should not start only after the end of the war. Among the possible solutions they name:

• agreements with EU countries about circular migration
• support for remote work in Ukraine
• simplification of procedures for entering universities
• mutual recognition of work experience
• employment and re-qualification programmes

Housing programmes, rental support, and development of transport links between Ukraine and European countries may also become important.

However, experts note that no programme can replace the main factor. Security remains the key condition that determines people's decision to return.

However, the data show another important pattern: where educational, labour, and financial ties with Ukraine are preserved, return after the war becomes much more realistic.

As Soclportal wrote, more than 4 million Ukrainians currently have temporary protection status in the EU. Most have managed to obtain legal status, basic support, access to medical care, education, and the labour market. However, life in a foreign land is accompanied by many challenges, and a significant proportion of people still live "between two worlds". What can the state do to bring back its citizens and how they help the country those who have become part of the Ukrainian diaspora abroad.